This year’s Oscars are sure to be one of the most interesting in recent memory. The Academy forgoing without a host, a number of films nominated in some categories that many find to be both offensive and wrong, and seemingly nobody content with any nomination and all the non-nominations. So, it actually will be like any year at the Oscars.
From this lame duck of a cinephile and film lover, I have my own biases and judgments on what should and shouldn’t have been nominated, and when it will come to the night itself, thoughts on what should have won and shouldn’t have won, but don’t worry, you won’t have to wait until February 24th to get a pulse on my thoughts and reactions.
These choices below are a mix of predictions, personal choices and favorites, and just wild guesses. When it comes to the bottom line, all of these films are works of art, meant to exhibit ideas and provoke feelings and emotions. There is no complete consensus or right answer. All this boils down to is personal preference and subjectivity (save Spider-Man…). So without further ado, here is my Film-Bum Oscar predictions and guesses…
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
A charging and ravish story that is as many parts magical realism as it is a political/contemporary critique. Aside from an intense and unexpected story that unravels in ways you never expect, keeping your breath within its cinematic grasp until the very last frame. Border is by no means perfect or even exquisite filmmaking, but where it lacks in sense and barrages in audacity, it excels in its makeup and design. You should probably just see this one just to get what I am talking about…
FILM EDITING
“The Favourite”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Green Book”
“Vice”
The third area where a film is ‘written’, editing is so crucial in not only telling a compelling or beautiful story but a story that makes sense to the eyes and mind. Not many other films manage to be a cinematic grappling hook to the brain like The Favourite manages to be. Lavish and holding the elements of the film in his very talented holds Lanthimos handles stories with such a brisk dominance. The fact his past three films have been so exceptional, it is a head scratcher he is not brought up more as one of the worlds best-working directors more.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Ready Player One”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Not everyone’s favorite movies, let alone Spielberg films, Ready Player One is a bit of a conundrum. It is very much clickbait and of its time, but having known that and having known Spielberg’s career and past films this could be looked at as one of his most brilliant and relevant works. I could fall down the rabbit hole of his this film is as much of a money grabber as it is a self-reflection on an artist’s own career, but we’re here to talk about the visual effects, and some of the most beautiful and incredible cinematic moments happen within Ready Player One.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
Beale Street‘s soundtrack is hands down one of the best pieces of art to come out of 2018. Alone, Nicholas Britell’s soundtrack is an elegant and empathetic work. It transcends the limits of music and creates emotions and feelings in its listener. Pairing that with the beauty and grace that Barry Jenkins shoots love and you have near perfection.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Detainment”
“Fauve”
“Marguerite”
“Mother”
“Skin”
One of the most well crafted all around shorts from the lot, Detainment is the gripping true story of… well, maybe just dig it up and find out yourself. You won’t be disappointed.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“One Small Step”
“Animal Behaviour”
“Bao”
“Late Afternoon”
“Weekends”
This year’s selection of animated shorts is challenging to sift through. There are a number of shorts here that actually pair really well and work around similar issues and themes in their own unique ways. Maybe it’s the simplicity and crispness that the film is made with, or maybe it is my bay Area bias, but One Small Step just eeks out past Bao for me for Best Animated Short this year.
SOUND MIXING
“First Man”
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
I am quite disappointed in myself for not going out to see First Man more than once on as big of a screen (and speakers) as I could. Its opening sequence is shocking and exhilarating. If you were looking for as different of a first ten minutes in a film, pair the opening of La La Land and First Man and let’s talk about a skilled and diverse filmmaker who is not afraid to change things up and have it work any way he pleases.
SOUND EDITING
“First Man”
“A Quiet Place”
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Roma”
See above.
COSTUME DESIGN
“The Favourite”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
If The Favourite didn’t win costumes this year, it would be like if Phantom Thread didn’t win best costumes last year. It just doesn’t happen.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Cold War”
“The Favourite”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
One of my first gutsy personal picks, I am going with something I feel deserves the win, and hopes will win over what I think actually will win this year. Cold War‘s framing and entire run time is a slow-burning pleasure to the senses, from its gorgeous depiction of Europe during the Cold War, to its intimate, yet distanced closeness to its two star-crossed-lovers, Cold War is one of the coldest love stories to come out in recent memory and it rocks.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Favourite”
“Black Panther”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Roma”
Again, The Favourite excels in nearly every category its nominated it, it will be a real head scratcher if it doesn’t walk away from most of these categories with a little gold man.
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
This is a really tough category, and although I think a pair of directors above could easily win, Cuaron’s overall masterpiece is beyond me. It’s so intensely personal, yet so refined. he has his fingers all over this film and it really shows. By far one of his best works since Children of Men.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Another pick I am making from the gut rather than the brain, although I will say, I think this category is much closer than some think. I think Gaga’s performance here is masterful and unparalleled. She deserves the Oscar as much as some of the other women here, but I am going with my gut and my gut is Gaga.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
See the Golden Globes the past few years and this pick feels like a no brainer.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
There are a few actors in Beale Street I am very upset didn’t get noms. In fact, I am quite upset Beale Street didn’t get more noms, but c’est la vie. Regina King gives an unforgettable performance as she dominates the screen anytime she is there. She portrays Black motherhood with such beauty and grace. It’s something to be seen.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlackKKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
I am not a fan of Green Book, and really its only saving grace is Mahershala’s performance and, well, that’s about it. It is just that good, and he will get an Oscar for it.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“First Reformed”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“Vice”
A category I don’t agree with all that much, but out of the bunch First Reformed is one of the most compelling and outright gritty stories this year.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“A Star Is Born”
If Beale Street doesn’t win, there will be riots. Full on riots, I tell you.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
The easiest pick this year, probably.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Shallow” – “A Star Is Born
“All The Stars” – “Black Panther”
“I’ll Fight” – “RBG”
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” – “Mary Poppins Returns”
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” – “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
A tough category, but Gaga takes it again here.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
“Period. End of Sentence.”
“Black Sheep”
“End Game”
“Lifeboat”
“A Night at the Garden”
The most uplifting and brightest of the docs this year, it is a really tough category and I feel each doc excels in its own right. There is hard spaces to compare these masterful docs, but Period. End of Sentence seems to me to just be one of the best. It’s tough, but just barely.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Minding the Gap”
“Free Solo”
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
“Of Fathers and Sons”
“RBG”
Minding the Gap is one of the most important works about/on/of masculinity in the modern age, and I don’t see how it doesn’t win here.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Shoplifters”
“Capernaum”
“Cold War”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
I am going with the film I am pretty sure won’t win, but I will pick it here, and in every Oscar ballot I submit because it is pure treason and treachery to not pick this film for me. One of the best movies I have seen this decade.
BEST PICTURE
“Roma”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
I think this award can go three or four different ways. I think that overall Roma is the best film. It packs the most punch emotionally and resonated with audiences throughout. This may be the toughest category to pick, but I feel (and hope) that Roma is the film to eek the award of the night.
